Countdown Begins: Russia Likely to Win Ukraine War as It Drags On

Back in 2008, when William Burns was the U.S. Ambassador to Russia, he sent a now-famous memo that said, "Nyet means no." He was talking about how strongly Russia opposed NATO expanding eastward. This wasn't just about Russian President Vladimir Putin – the entire Russian leadership didn't want Ukraine joining NATO. Burns, who is now the director of the CIA, warned that this was a "bright red line" for Russia, but the U.S. kept pushing anyway.

Despite promises made to Russia in the early 1990s that NATO wouldn’t move eastward, NATO has expanded several times over the years. It added countries like Poland, Hungary, and the Baltic states, getting closer and closer to Russia's borders. This ongoing expansion is a major reason behind the ongoing war in Ukraine, which began in February 2022.

Now, it seems the war may end sooner rather than later, and the likely outcome will be in Russia’s favor. Russia will probably keep control of the Donbas and Donetsk regions in eastern Ukraine, and Ukraine will likely have to agree not to join NATO.

Russia’s Advantage in a Long War

While the U.S. and its allies have been supporting Ukraine, the reality is that Russia is winning a war of endurance. Ukraine is running out of soldiers, weapons, and money, and its power grid has been nearly destroyed by Russian attacks. As winter approaches, the situation looks bleak for Ukraine.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for immediate NATO membership and permission to strike deeper into Russia, but neither is likely to happen. Western nations, including the U.S., don’t want to risk triggering a nuclear conflict with Russia.

The Likely Endgame

So, how will this all end? Critics like U.S. veteran Col. Douglas McGregor believe that Zelensky might eventually be forced into exile, similar to what happened in past U.S. wars like Vietnam and Afghanistan. Ukraine’s hopes of victory seem dim as Russia continues to make gains.

In the end, the real losers in this conflict are the Ukrainian people, who have suffered immensely. The war has devastated the country, all because of the U.S. neocons’ dream of removing Putin from power and weakening Russia. But instead of weakening Russia, the sanctions placed on the country have only made it stronger. The Russian economy is growing, and Russia has built stronger relationships with countries like China and India.

A Lesson in Miscalculation

This war is a reminder that even well-intentioned ideas, like spreading democracy, can backfire if you don’t understand the deep fears and concerns of the countries involved. For Russia, NATO’s presence right next door, especially in Ukraine, was seen as an existential threat.

So, as the countdown to the end of this war begins, one thing is clear: "Nyet" really did mean no.

Sources: Internet Sources & Twitter X 

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