With just two days left before the U.S. presidential election, Vice-President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a close race, with polls calling it a "dead heat." According to recent national surveys, Harris holds a slight lead over Trump, by less than one percentage point, with Harris polling at 48.5% and Trump at 47.6%. NBC News and Emerson College polls show the race tied at 49%, while Ipsos gives Harris a three-point lead at 49%-46%.
The real battle is in the seven key swing states that will determine the next president. A New York Times-Siena poll, known for its accuracy, shows Trump slightly ahead in Arizona with 49% to Harris’s 45%, but in four other swing states — Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia — Harris has a slight edge. The race is particularly close in Pennsylvania and Michigan, with both candidates neck-and-neck.
For Harris to secure the presidency, her best shot is to hold onto the “Blue Wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which were critical for Joe Biden's victory in 2020. However, if she falters there, Harris will need strong performances in the "Sun Belt" states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, which Trump won in the last election.
Pollsters have noted that Harris’s advantage among racial minorities has narrowed slightly, with Trump gaining support among non-college-educated minority voters. However, Harris has gained ground with white women voters, especially on the issue of abortion rights, which is likely to be a key factor in the election.
In Iowa, typically a Republican stronghold, a poll by highly-rated pollster Ann Selzer shows Harris leading Trump 47%-44%, further indicating the unpredictable nature of this election. With both candidates neck-and-neck in crucial swing states, the outcome will depend heavily on voter turnout among key groups.
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